TDA-IME Project Final Report June, 2013 crossed (Bernhardt and Leslie, 2013). There is clear palaeo-environmental evidence of just such a shift in mangroves in the Galápagos approximately 2000 years ago, when the accumulating effect of slow environmental changes culminated in abrupt replacement of mangroves by a microbial mat (Seddon et al., 2011). Uncertainty in detailed predictions of the effects of global climate change should not detract from the conclusion that global climate change is an established fact and will continue for the foreseeable future; and that ecosystems - particularly mangroves - have been and will be affected significantly. The uncertainties in prediction affect only the timescale and extent of the impacts from climate change. Conclusions There is a compelling need to develop transboundary cooperation to assess the vulnerability of mangroves to climate change at regional level across Indochina, since climate change is a growing concern to all countries. Transboundary mangrove conservation management is particularly necessary to protect biodiversity, and therefore the resilience of mangrove ecosystems to climate change. Conservation efforts on a transboundary scale will help to ensure that fragmented areas of mangrove that are too small to be self-sustaining, and degraded or stressed areas of mangrove habitat that have lost their reproductive integrity, can still survive. This will be possible because of the high dispersion capacity of mangrove plant propagules, mangrove macrofauna and mangrove-associated fish species from ecologically healthy mangrove habitats. Cooperation on a transboundary scale will require: a) Monitoring of a number of specific sites in relation to climate change and other stressors on mangroves, e.g. sediment starvation (Pernetta, 1993). b) Spatial mapping to plot the vulnerability of mangroves to climate change based on an agreed standard vulnerability index (an example proposed by Ellison, 2012 is provided in Section 4). c) Regionally coordinated efforts to help countries improve the management effectiveness of existing Marine Protected Areas, especially those containing significant areas of mangrove and other coastal habitats. d) Identification of mangrove sites that could be designated as new transboundary Protected Areas. 67
Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis of Indochina Mangrove Ecosystems
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