This Environmental policy scenario assumes a doubling of instream flows below the Phetchaburi diversion and a reduction in releases from the Khangkachan Reservoir to maintain storage. Releases from the reservoir are restricted by halving the buffer coefficient, which determines the amount of water that can be released as portion of what is stored. Performance metrics for this scenario include, 1) the amount of water delivered through the canals to regions A3, A4, and A5; 2) the amount of groundwater used in the region and groundwater levels; and 3) reservoir storage and hydropower production at the Khangkachan Reservoir. The BAU and Environmental policy scenarios are summarized in Fig.4. III. RESULTS We present results for the future climate projections of the region from the RegCM4 regional climate modeling experiment, forced on the boundaries by the MPI-ESM-MR GCM model. We also present the analysis of the Integrated Water Resource Management model on the water supply and demand of the study area. Climate Projections The climate projection of the two river basins the downscaling of MPI-ESM-MR can be summarized as follows and changes are summarized in Fig.6 and 7: - The projection of annual average daily mean temperature of both basins show an increasing trend. The projected temperature under RCP8.5 is higher than RCP4.5. - The projected temperature from the downscaling process is able to capture the variation of temperature over the baseline period or 1971-2005. - Over the period 2031-2040, the daily mean temperature of both basins under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 is about 0.84oC and 0.96oC higher than the baseline period respectively. The higher change from RCP8.5 resulted from higher driving force of greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere. - The increase in daily mean temperature over the period 2036-2040 of Phetchaburi and Prachuab Khiri Khan river basins under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 compared to the baseline period are illustrated in Fig.5. - Over the period 2036-2040, the annual average precipitation from RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are projected to decrease from the baseline period as illustrated in Fig.6. The change in precipitation is not as pronounced as the change in annual average daily mean temperature. - Over the period 2031-2040, the annual average precipitation projection from RCP8.5 is lower than the RCP4.5 when compared to the baseline period. - Over the projection period or 2006- 2040, the annual average precipitation change from RCP4.5 is in the range of -9.3–+7.2% compared to the baseline while the RCP8.5 is the range of -10.2–-4.6%. Proceedings of the International Conference on Climate Change, Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services for the 247 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): Policy and Practice 27-29 June 2016, Cha-am, Phetchaburi, Thailand
Proceedings of International Conference on Climate Change, Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services for the Sustainable Development Goals : Policy and Practice 27-29 June 2016 at the Sirindhorn International Environmental Park, Cha-am, Phetchaburi, Thailand
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