R95p Very wet days Annual total PRCP when RR>95th E. Anomaly and Trend Identification percentile To evaluate the variation of climate pattern, anomalies based on the difference between mean temperature in each year and the long-term average for the period 1975-2015 are calculated. The observed mean annual maximum temperatures (Tmaxmean) or annual minimum temperature (Tminmean) were then plotted in time series. The statistical significance of the trends was calculated using ordinary least square method. The Thiel-Sen nonparametric method is used to estimate the slope of linear trends 19. This method is frequently applied in previous climatological studies (e.g. 20, 21) and which outperforms the least squares regression in computing the magnitude of linear trends when the sample size is large 22. The 95% significant levels were used to consider a trend to be statistically significant. The slope estimates of N pairs of data are first computed by; Where, xj and xk are data values at times j and k (j>k), respectively. The median of these N values of Qi is the Sen’s estimator of slope. III. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION A. Anomaly and Trend Analysis 1) Mean Maximum Temperature: The overall trend of mean maximum temperature anomalies at four stations in Mandalay, Meikthila, Monywa, and Pyinmana increased throughout the latter half of observed periods in all stations except Minbu. The anomalies in Minbu were varied, moving between positive and negative ones. Most of the station reaches the highest anomalies about +1.5°C versus the normal value. The mean maximum temperature in dry zone area started to increase since 1977. The continuous positive anomalies started from 1993 ranging from a minimum of +0.01°C (2001) to a maximum of +1.12°C (2010). The significant positive anomalies can be observed in 2009, 1998, 2005, 2014, 2012, and 1979 (descending order of anomalies value) (Fig.2) and almost all the years correspond with the declining phase of strong El Niño events 23. During the 21st century, temperatures have continued to increase from 2003 to 2015 except in 2007 and 2011, which experienced the La Niña events 23. 296 Proceedings of the International Conference on Climate Change, Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): Policy and Practice 27-29 June 2016, Cha-am, Phetchaburi, Thailand mm R99p Extremely wet days Annual total PRCP when RR>99th percentile mm CDD Consecutive dry days Maximum number of consecutives days with RR<1mm Days CWD Consecutive wet days Maximum number of consecutives days with RR>=1mm Days For i= 1,…,NEq(2)
Proceedings of International Conference on Climate Change, Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services for the Sustainable Development Goals : Policy and Practice 27-29 June 2016 at the Sirindhorn International Environmental Park, Cha-am, Phetchaburi, Thailand
To see the actual publication please follow the link above