3. The processing of the climate model output into daily time series of precipitation and temperature for the historic period 1970 through 2005; and the future period 2006 through 2040. These data were processed to be compability with the Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP) decision support system. 4. The development of an integrated WEAP water planning model of the of Phetchaburi and Prachuab Khiri Khan river basins, which characterizes the water supply and demand across these basins, including the coastal Sirindhorn International Environmental Park. The model was developed and applied to address water management questions using the future climate forcing from the downscaling processes. 5 . An a s s essme n t o f the wat e r management in the Sirindhorn International Environmental Park and adjacent areas was carried out by incorporated the impacts from future climate change as well as the increase in the future water demand. The MPI-ESM-MR Global Climate Model The MPI-ESM-MR GCM output applied in this study is among the new set of Earth System Models under the recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). For this study, we used data from the MPI-ESM-MR as the boundary forcing for the RegCM4 regional dynamical modeling, including two different future greenhouse gas concentration trajectories (Giorgetta 2012). The greenhouse gases emission scenariso under the CMIP5 are known as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), with the MPI- ESM-MR’s RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 data used in this study for the regional downscaling. Since the GCM provides the lateral boundary conditions for the RCM within the region of interest, the GCM is the primary determinant of the climate charertics that are simulated at the regional scale. Fig.2 summarizes in the gray box plot, the future projection of the full set of CMIP-5 models including the daily average preciption and annual average temperature over land for the Thailand region that includes the Petchaburi and Prachuap Khiri Khan River basins. The black line in the plots shows the historic estimate of those same variables based on the ERA-Interm data, which are a pseudo-observational product based on a global atmospheric reanalysis process of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The plots shows the variability of precipitation and the fact that GCMs generally under-estimate rainfall in the region, with the mean GCM estimate of about 4.3 mm/day, while the re-analysis suggests about 6 mm/day); while surface temperatures are about 25.8oC while the ERA-Interm estimate is slightly more warm, at about 26.3oC in the early 1980’s. The red lines in both figures are the data from the MPI-ESM-MR and show similar inter-annual variaiblity with regards to rainfall, with a mean estimate of 5 mm/day, with no strong long-term trend. It is interesting to note that the re-analysis data suggests a warming trend in the region by about 1oC from 1979 to 2016, with the MPI-ESM-MR model Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are four greenhouse gas concentration trajectories adopted by the IPCC for its fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and describe possible climate futures which consider possible future greenhouse gases emissions, and include RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5, named after a possible range of radiative forcing values in the year 2100 relative to pre-industrial values (+2.6, +4.5, +6.0, and +8.5 W/m2, respectively). Proceedings of the International Conference on Climate Change, Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services for the 241 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): Policy and Practice 27-29 June 2016, Cha-am, Phetchaburi, Thailand
Proceedings of International Conference on Climate Change, Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services for the Sustainable Development Goals : Policy and Practice 27-29 June 2016 at the Sirindhorn International Environmental Park, Cha-am, Phetchaburi, Thailand
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