Fig.2 Daily average precipitation (left) and annual average temperature (right) averaged over Southern Thailand’s land points from 102oE to 95oE and 5oN to 16oN for 1) the full set of RCP8.5 climate projections from the CMIP-5 archive (light gray box-plots), 2) the ERA-Interm estimate for the period 1979 through 2016 (heavy black line), and 3) the MPI-ESM-MR GCM generally following this same trend, with an overall bias of about 0.5oC. The MPI-ESM- MR’s model of surface temperature tracks along the ensemble meant for temperature is more wet than the ensemble mean with regards to precipitation. Regional Downscaling The downscaling process is a hybrid approach that combines both dynamical atmospheric modeling and statistical methods to derive high resolution, daily meterological data across Thailand. The statistical downscaling encompasses both experimental observations, relative to a specific location, or simulations, computed either by a large scale general circulation model (GCM) or a regional circulation model (RCM) (Valverde et al, 2014). The dynamical downscaling was accomplished using the the REGional Climate Model version 4.3.5.7 (RegCM4), driven on its boundary by the MPI-ESM-MR. Downscaling was done at a 25 km × 25 km spartial resolution over the CORDEX-SEA domain covering 15.14oS- 27.26oN, 89.26oE-146.96oE. The simulation was done on the Normal Mecator-domain cartographic projection using the MIT Emanual- Cumulus convection Scheme, Zeng Ocean model roughness formula 1-Ocean Flux scheme, Holslag PBL-Boundary layer scheme and Explicit moisture- Moisture scheme. This dynamical downscaling process is also a part of activities under the Southeast Asia Climate Downscaling Experiment/ CORDEX Southeat Asia (www.ukm.edu.my/ seaclid-cordex). The outputs from RegCM4 over the Petchaburi and Prachuap Khiri Khan River Basins were then further staticially downscaled to a 5 km × 5 km grid resolution using a multilayer perceptron, feedforward artificial neural network 242 Proceedings of the International Conference on Climate Change, Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): Policy and Practice 27-29 June 2016, Cha-am, Phetchaburi, Thailand
Proceedings of International Conference on Climate Change, Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services for the Sustainable Development Goals : Policy and Practice 27-29 June 2016 at the Sirindhorn International Environmental Park, Cha-am, Phetchaburi, Thailand
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